|
Africa
|
|
Algeria
|
D&B downgrades Algeria's country risk rating amid rising political
and commercial risks.
|
|
Angola
|
Political
stability and higher oil prices support the economic recovery.
|
|
Botswana
|
The
government's spending programme allays fears of a tighter fiscal policy amid
subdued business confidence.
|
|
Cameroon
|
Public
spending rises ahead of the presidential election but risks exacerbating
financing problems.
|
|
Congo, D.R.
|
Closer
ties with the IMF should bolster the country's economic stability.
|
|
Cote d’Ivoire
|
Mounting
political tensions threaten the business environment.
|
|
Ethiopia
|
The
operating environment will remain difficult if global economic growth
weakens.
|
|
Gabon
|
Short-term
growth prospects are favourable but concerns remain over resource contracts.
|
|
Ghana
|
The
country's short-term economic prospects are positive but a number of negative
factors cloud the commercial environment.
|
|
Kenya
|
A fresh
constitutional crisis underscores the fragility of the power-sharing
government.
|
|
Libya
|
The
uncertain political and commercial outlook increases the risk of doing
business in the country.
|
|
Malawi
|
Earthquakes
undermine the pace of the economic recovery.
|
|
Mauritius
|
Economic
uncertainty persists despite favourable prospects for a short-term recovery.
|
|
Morocco
|
Growth
prospects remain positive despite a decline in agricultural production.
|
|
Mozambique
|
The
government's likely return to a prudent fiscal policy will reduce financing
risks and support economic growth.
|
|
Namibia
|
Despite
an improvement in the country's economic outlook, downside risks remain.
|
|
Nigeria
|
D&B
downgrades Nigeria's country risk rating due to concerns over political
instability and insecurity.
|
|
Senegal
|
Instability
in neighbouring Guinea and the need for major domestic economic reform cloud
the risk environment.
|
|
Sierra Leone
|
The
upturn in global commodity markets bolsters the country's economic prospects.
|
|
South Africa
|
Ongoing
fiscal expansion promotes economic growth, but risks creating of persistent
budget deficits.
|
|
Sudan
|
Political
risk still dominates the outlook ahead of the April presidential election.
|
|
Tanzania
|
High
gold prices and further IMF financial assistance serve to support the
economy.
|
|
Tunisia
|
The
economic outlook brightens as all major indicators improve.
|
|
Uganda
|
The
economic outlook is positive as rebounding foreign investment boosts growth.
|
|
Zambia
|
The
president's focus on winning re-election detracts from anti-corruption
measures and risks alienating foreign donors.
|
|
Zimbabwe
|
Political
uncertainty reduces the likelihood of a full economic recovery.
|
|
Asia Pacific
|
|
Afghanistan
|
US and other NATO nations call for increased
Afghan-led security and reconciliation initiatives.
|
|
Australia
|
Household
and business optimism are set to drive demand in the year ahead.
|
|
Bangladesh
|
The economic outlook is relatively positive, but
payment risks remain prominent.
|
|
Cambodia
|
Cash-flow
problems in key economic sectors exacerbate payment and default risks.
|
|
China
|
The
authorities are poised to tighten policy to prevent the economy from
overheating.
|
|
Fiji
|
The
economy contracted sharply in 2009 and faces challenges in 2010.
|
|
Hong Kong
|
The
risk environment strengthens amid signs of economic recovery.
|
|
India
|
A
modest improvement in the import-export sector helps to reduce payment risks.
|
|
Indonesia
|
Economic
growth should improve amid rebounding external and domestic demand.
|
|
Japan
|
Doubts
persist about the sustainability of the economic recovery.
|
|
Korea (South)
|
D&B
upgrades South Korea's country risk rating as the economic recovery becomes
more firmly entrenched.
|
|
Malaysia
|
The
central bank faces a difficult decision about interest rate increases over
the coming months.
|
|
Myanmar
|
The
general election planned for later in the year will be heavily controlled in
favour of the military regime.
|
|
Nepal
|
A new
agreement between the country's main parties could help to end political
deadlock and improve the risk environment.
|
|
New Zealand
|
Employment
and housing market developments reinforce expectations of a fragile economic
recovery.
|
|
Pakistan
|
Despite
high levels of political uncertainty, the economy is very slowly beginning to
recover.
|
|
Papua New Guinea
|
Having
ridden out the shock of 2009, the economy is set to accelerate in 2010.
|
|
Philippines
|
Signs
of an economic recovery emerge but rising inflation is a concern.
|
|
Singapore
|
Strong
export performance helps to boost the short-term economic outlook.
|
|
Sri Lanka
|
The
outlook improves amid prospects of political consolidation and improved
stability.
|
|
Taiwan
|
The
import-export sector's robust upturn helps to ease payment risks.
|
|
Thailand
|
The
economic recovery remains weak, with confidence particularly poor in the
manufacturing and service sectors.
|
|
Vietnam
|
D&B
expects recent devaluations to have exacerbated
currency mismatches and further elevate payment risks.
|
|
Eastern
Europe
|
|
Albania
|
Political
wrangling continues to dominate the risk environment.
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
The
recovering global economy and rising oil prices boost the country's economic
outlook.
|
|
Belarus
|
Further
external financial support for the economy depends on the enactment of key
reforms.
|
|
Bosnia
& Herzegovina
|
The
Serb entity moves closer to a referendum on independence, heightening
political risk ahead of the October 2010 elections.
|
|
Bulgaria
|
The
country's reputation receives a blow as its nominee for the European
Commission is forced to withdraw.
|
|
Croatia
|
The
authorities continue to struggle with the effects of the global recession.
|
|
Czech Republic
|
The
outcome of May's parliamentary election is unlikely to assist efforts to
strengthen policy-making.
|
|
Estonia
|
Despite
some limited economic stabilisation, the economy is likely to continue to
contract in 2010.
|
|
Georgia
|
The
country's longer-term prospects remain uncertain despite a weak economic
recovery.
|
|
Hungary
|
Confidence
rises among manufacturers, but any economic recovery will remain muted.
|
|
Kazakhstan
|
Despite
higher-than-expected growth in 2009, the economy remains weak and any
recovery will be slow.
|
|
Kyrgyz Republic
|
Although
payment risks remain, the risk outlook is starting to improve.
|
|
Latvia
|
The
economic outlook remains weak as the country struggles to recover from the
largest slump in the EU in 2009.
|
|
Lithuania
|
The
economic outlook remains weak, but signs of stabilisation are emerging
gradually.
|
|
Macedonia
|
A
reduction in the large current account deficit should improve the risk
outlook.
|
|
Poland
|
The
resilient domestic economy grew in 2009 and we expect this growth to be
sustained in 2010.
|
|
Romania
|
The IMF
releases funds from a pre-agreed aid package amid improving political
circumstances.
|
|
Russian Federation
|
The
economic recovery could come under renewed pressure in the months ahead.
|
|
Serbia
|
D&B
upgrades Serbia's country risk rating as an IMF agreement boosts the economic
outlook amid a more-favourable political climate.
|
|
Slovak Republic
|
Industrial
production data point to a sluggish recovery in economic activity.
|
|
Slovenia
|
New
minimum wage rules threaten to undermine business interests.
|
|
Tajikistan
|
The
effects of the global downturn continue to weigh down the economy.
|
|
Turkmenistan
|
Renewed
gas sales to Russia and new pipeline construction will help to boost
hydrocarbon receipts.
|
|
Ukraine
|
The
presidential election result is unlikely to lead to a wholesale policy shift
towards Russia.
|
|
Uzbekistan
|
Tensions
rise with Tajikistan as Uzbekistan cuts gas supplies.
|
|
Western
Europe
|
|
Austria
|
Doubts
cloud the sustainability of the economic recovery.
|
|
Belgium
|
The
recovery remains volatile amid low consumer confidence and rising
unemployment.
|
|
Cyprus
|
Worsening
political conditions increase the risk that reunification talks could break
down.
|
|
Denmark
|
The
economic recovery gains momentum but important downside risks to a sustained
rebound persist.
|
|
Finland
|
Despite
a moderate recovery in economic activity, growth prospects remain modest over
our forecast period.
|
|
France
|
Robust
economic growth figures mask underlying downside risks to the recovery.
|
|
Germany
|
Companies
exposed to the German economy should remain vigilant as downside risks persist.
|
|
Greece
|
D&B
downgrades Greece's country risk rating in response to a deteriorating
economic outlook and increasing socio-political risk.
|
|
Iceland
|
The
economy takes another step towards macroeconomic normalisation as interest
rates are cut further.
|
|
Ireland
|
The
outlook for the year remains poor as the country grapples with a high budget
deficit and rising public debt.
|
|
Italy
|
Weak
economic growth again highlights the fragile state of the economy.
|
|
Luxembourg
|
Stronger
economic data fail to dispel concerns about the sustainability of the upturn.
|
|
Malta
|
The
outlook for business performance remains challenging amid ongoing concerns
about the sustainability of the upturn.
|
|
Netherlands
|
D&B
downgrades the Netherlands' country risk rating as the government's collapse
heralds a period of elevated political uncertainty.
|
|
Norway
|
Stronger
consumer spending boosts the economic outlook but manufacturing prospects are
still weak.
|
|
Portugal
|
The
risk outlook deteriorates amid intensifying concerns over the public
finances.
|
|
Spain
|
D&B
downgrades Spain's country risk rating as the economic outlook worsens
further.
|
|
Sweden
|
The
chances of a strong economic recovery remain uncertain despite an improvement
in industrial production.
|
|
Switzerland
|
The
economic recovery is likely to flatten out later in the year.
|
|
Turkey
|
Political
risk eases as the military takes steps to reduce its role in the political
system.
|
|
United Kingdom
|
Inflation
rises but a moderate fall is likely later in the year.
|
|
Middle East
|
|
Bahrain
|
Banking
sector concerns cloud the broader risk environment.
|
|
Egypt
|
Improving
growth prospects will reduce credit risk in the short term.
|
|
Iran
|
D&B
downgrades Iran’s country risk rating in response to worsening domestic and
external political risks.
|
|
Iraq
|
Political
and security tensions rise ahead of the parliamentary election.
|
|
Israel
|
The
rebounding economy supports an improvement in credit risk.
|
|
Jordan
|
The
political and security outlook remains uncertain as the new government takes
time to implement its policy agenda.
|
|
Kuwait
|
A
combined fiscal and monetary expansion boosts the economic outlook.
|
|
Lebanon
|
A sound
banking system and strong foreign investment inflows boost robust economic
growth.
|
|
Oman
|
The
economic risk outlook improves as demand for oil rises.
|
|
Qatar
|
Growing
hydrocarbon revenues support the positive outlook.
|
|
Saudi Arabia
|
Despite
the improving economic outlook, credit risk remains significant.
|
|
Syria
|
The
government launches a major programme to improve the business environment.
|
|
UAE
|
D&B
downgrades the UAE's country risk rating due to fears over the debt crisis in
Dubai.
|
|
Yemen
|
D&B
downgrades Yemen’s country risk rating in response to a
deterioration in the security situation.
|
|
The Americas
|
|
Argentina
|
Inflationary
risk increases as the the government continues with
its expansionary policy stance and seizes control of the central bank.
|
|
Bolivia
|
Commercial
and political risks ease as the economy continues to expand solidly.
|
|
Brazil
|
An
appreciating currency and rapid economic growth risk creating imbalances.
|
|
Canada
|
The
recovery becomes more firmly entrenched as unemployment falls and business
sentiment improves.
|
|
Chile
|
We
expect the new centre-right government to allow the currency to depreciate to
support exporters.
|
|
Colombia
|
D&B
downgrades Colombia's country risk rating amid rising insecurity and
uncertainty over constitutional amendments.
|
|
Costa Rica
|
The
centrist candidate's presidential election victory bodes well for the
continuation of a liberal economic policy.
|
|
Cuba
|
The
authorities halt payments on imports as the commercial crisis intensifies.
|
|
Dominican Republic
|
Hopes
for an economic rebound still depend on an increase in demand from the US.
|
|
Ecuador
|
President
Correa's anti-business agenda will dominate the commercial environment in the
near term.
|
|
El Salvador
|
Poor
demand in the US clouds economic prospects as the government's fiscal reforms
stall.
|
|
Guatemala
|
Political
risks increase as the government finds it difficult to push through its
policy agenda.
|
|
Honduras
|
D&B
upgrades Honduras’ country risk rating in response to improvements in the
political risk outlook.
|
|
Jamaica
|
D&B
upgrades Jamaica's country risk rating as a deal with the IMF improves the
fiscal outlook substantially.
|
|
Mexico
|
The
economic outlook improves as exports rebound but the recovery will be slow.
|
|
Nicaragua
|
The
political system nears crisis as President Ortega moves to permit his
re-election.
|
|
Panama
|
Efforts
to improve banking sector transparency increase amid rebounding economic activity.
|
|
Paraguay
|
The
economy appears set to expand, but political tensions and the continuing
drought represent downside risks.
|
|
Peru
|
Measures
to stem currency appreciation adversely affect short-term liquidity.
|
|
Trinidad & Tobago
|
Tighter
fiscal policy should bring down the fiscal deficit but risks derailing an
economic recovery.
|
|
USA
|
The
economy expands strongly but concerns remain over the sustainability of the
recovery.
|
|
Uruguay
|
The new
centre-left government is set to maintain a pro-business stance and encourage
foreign investment.
|
|
Venezuela
|
Key oil
blocks generate foreign investment but lack of demand hinders competitive
bids.
|
|
|
|
